The clash of the curves

After yesterday US congressional leaders agreed on a relief package for the US economy of historic proportions, another critical milestone has been passed. The fiscal and monetary firewalls that have been erected should be sufficient to allow the economy to hail from a sudden slowdown in activity. However, there is still a fundamental unknown to … Continued

After Hysteria comes Hysteresis

Human inference is clearly imperfect, particularly when it comes to problems that require statistical or probabilistic knowledge. If, in addition, the situation carries some kind of life-threatening risk, our “lizard brain” quickly takes over and triggers a «fight or flight» response, rather than going for math books.   To complicate matters, the statistics look very … Continued