After Hysteria comes Hysteresis

Human inference is clearly imperfect, particularly when it comes to problems that require statistical or probabilistic knowledge. If, in addition, the situation carries some kind of life-threatening risk, our “lizard brain” quickly takes over and triggers a „fight or flight“ response, rather than going for math books.   To complicate matters, the statistics look very … Continued

Coronavirus – Market update

Yesterday’s sharp market correction was triggered by the new coronaviruses cases known over the weekend. The new outbreaks are qualitatively different, since they have arisen in regions far away from China, such as Iran or Italy, which increases the risk that the new disease can become a pandemic.   However, since health authorities and the … Continued